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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."