🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still